World Bank Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.3%

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025, while projecting further growth of 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

The projection is contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled Building AI-Readiness, released on Tuesday, October 6. 

According to the report, Nigeria’s improved outlook is linked to greater macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment. 

The World Bank said economic activity in Nigeria is expected to strengthen from 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026 before reaching 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028. 

The revised projection places Nigeria among the African economies whose growth forecasts were upgraded in the latest assessment, alongside countries including Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia. The World Bank said the upgrades reflect reforms and improvements in economic management across several countries. 

The latest forecast comes against the backdrop of stronger recent economic activity in Nigeria. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the country's real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the same quarter of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. 

The NBS data showed that the Q2 performance was supported by growth in agriculture, services and the oil sector, although industrial growth was weaker than in the corresponding period of 2025. 

Despite the improved outlook, the World Bank's regional assessment noted that economic growth alone may not be sufficient to substantially reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs for Africa's rapidly growing workforce. It said countries would need to translate economic expansion into greater productivity, employment and improved living standards. 

For Nigeria, the latest forecast signals a moderately stronger growth outlook, while the ability to sustain the momentum will depend on continued macroeconomic reforms, investment and productivity improvements.