A fiscal analysis by Comrade IG Wala has raised questions about the sustainability of Niger State’s ₦3.93 trillion cumulative budget projections under Governor Mohammed Umar Bago, citing a significant gap between the state’s approved spending plans and reported revenue inflows from FAAC, Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and grants.
According to the analysis released on August 25, 2026, the Bago administration has proposed approximately ₦3.93 trillion in budgets since assuming office in May 2023, comprising a revised 2023 budget of ₦473.95 billion, ₦829.43 billion for 2024, ₦1.56 trillion for 2025 and ₦1.073 trillion for 2026.
IG Wala said the cumulative budget figures should be viewed against the state’s actual revenue performance, which, according to the analysis, has remained substantially lower than the projected expenditure levels.
The analysis cited data from The ICIR showing that Niger State recorded ₦78.9 billion in FAAC allocations and ₦21.6 billion in IGR in 2023, alongside approximately ₦12.5 billion in donor grants, putting total receipts at about ₦113 billion.
It further referenced BudgIT’s State of States data for 2024, which put Niger State’s gross FAAC receipts at approximately ₦374.3 billion, while IGR stood at about ₦34.7 billion.
The analysis also noted that Niger State’s 2024 budget of ₦829.43 billion recorded 30.42 per cent budget performance by the third quarter, according to figures attributed to The ICIR.
For 2025, IG Wala said the state’s revenue position remained significantly below the ₦1.56 trillion expenditure projection, pointing to what the analysis described as a funding gap of more than ₦1 trillion.
The analysis also raised concerns over the financing structure of the 2026 budget, particularly the reliance on borrowing to bridge the gap between projected expenditure and the state’s historical revenue performance.
However, the comparison does not necessarily mean that the entire ₦3.93 trillion in approved budgets was expected to be financed solely from FAAC, IGR and grants. Government budgets can also include loans, capital receipts, opening balances and other financing sources.
The analysis therefore calls for closer examination of actual expenditure, revenue collection, borrowing, project implementation and measurable outcomes before a definitive assessment can be made of the administration’s economic performance.
IG Wala concluded the analysis by posing a broader question about Governor Bago’s economic record, asking whether the governor should be regarded as a “noise-maker” or a “wealth-maker.”
For a conclusive assessment, however, available financial records would need to be examined alongside evidence of completed projects, employment creation, private-sector investment, internally generated revenue growth, debt sustainability and other measurable economic outcomes.
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