Dr Umar Ardo, convener of the League of Northern Democrats, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu could secure less than 10 per cent of votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free, fair and credible.
Ardo made the prediction on October 20, 2026, during an appearance on Arise Television's Morning Show, reiterating a position he reportedly expressed in September during an interview on Eagle 102.5 FM's Frontline programme in Ogun State.
The former Adamawa governorship aspirant attributed the anticipated decline in support for Tinubu to dissatisfaction with the administration's policies, rather than personal opposition to the president.
According to Ardo, economic challenges, insecurity and what he described as regional imbalances in governance have contributed to growing discontent in the North.
He cited the removal of the petrol subsidy, the floating of the naira, rising poverty, high living costs and increased transportation expenses among the factors affecting households across the region.
Ardo also highlighted persistent insecurity, particularly attacks by bandits and kidnappers, which he said had disrupted farming activities and livelihoods in communities dependent on agriculture and small-scale trading.
He further alleged that Northern Nigeria was being disadvantaged in budgetary releases, federal appointments and the distribution of positions in government agencies and parastatals.
The political figure claimed that some Southern ministries received significantly higher budgetary releases than their Northern counterparts, although figures substantiating the allegation were not provided in the information available.
Ardo said the perceived regional imbalance had contributed to concerns among some Northerners about the administration's inclusiveness, describing the situation as a perceived “Yorubanisation” of government.
He also questioned the assumption that Tinubu's electoral performance in the North during the 2023 presidential election would automatically translate into continued support in 2027.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission's declared results for the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu received substantial support across several Northern states. Ardo argued that voters could reconsider their political choices based on their economic circumstances and experiences under the current administration.
“The North has a dislike for the Tinubu administration, not necessarily for Tinubu as a person, but for his policies,” Ardo was quoted as saying.
He maintained that the president's performance in the next election would depend significantly on how voters assess the administration's policies and their effects on daily life.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can't get 10 per cent of the Northern vote,” Ardo declared.
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